Guides

Short answers to the questions this study keeps coming back to, each backed by the same data the site is built on.

• Is selling options profitable long-term?
  On average yes — with small wins most months and a large loss in every crash.
• What is the volatility risk premium?
  Why implied volatility tends to sit above what actually follows, and how big the gap is.
• VIX vs realized volatility: the historical gap
  VIX has run ~3–4 points high since 1993 — except in every crash, when it inverts.
• Does the volatility risk premium exist in commodities?
  Yes — oil averages +5.8 points and gold +2.6, both holding up out-of-sample.
• How much do option sellers earn historically?
  A monthly short straddle ran a 1.32 gross Sharpe since 1993 — about 0.77 after costs.